Обзор рынка листового проката — 18.08.2015

На украинском рынке плоского проката сохраняются предпосылки для некоторого снижения ценовых уровней вследствие падения цен на мировых торговых площадках.

На протяжении последних недель расценки на лист в Украине понемногу снижались. На фоне ощутимого отрицательного тренда на внешних рынках украинские производители удерживали свои отпускные расценки на достаточно низких уровнях, а трейдеры второго ряда плавно снижали цены по мере избавления от дорогого проката, закупленного весной после резкой девальвации гривны. С тех пор национальная валюта укрепилась, что естественным образом отразилось и на ценовых уровнях листового проката.

Впрочем, в июле гривна немного просела, так что долларовый эквивалент внутренних цен на лист снижался еще и по этой причине, а не только в результате падения собственно гривенных расценок. В целом за счет параллельного падения экспортных котировок разрыв между ними и внутренними ценовыми уровнями остался прежним (около 120–130 $/т). На самом деле это достаточно ощутимая величина. В прошлом году сбалансированное значение подобного разрыва составляло порядка 50–70 $/т, так что предпосылки для дальнейшего снижения внутренних расценок сохранятся, если только на мировых рынках листа не начнется быстрый рост цен.

Рис. 1. Цены внутреннего рынка на плоский прокат (с учетом НДС для партии металла массой 5 т)

Сравнительная динамика расценок на г/к лист в Китае и в Украине

Рис. 2. Сравнительная динамика расценок на г/к лист в Китае и в Украине

Сейчас отрицательный тренд на внешних рынках приостановился. Металлурги КНР сумели в достаточной степени сократить выпуск продукции, чтобы стабилизироваться ситуацию, а после недавнего восстановления котировок руды цены на лист в Поднебесной даже пошли вверх. Все это дало сигнал и игрокам на мировых торговых площадках: если в КНР металл начал дорожать, то отрицательный тренд подошел к концу, хотя бы на время. Вступил в силу отложенный спрос, что окончательно прервало снижение расценок на внешних рынках, стабилизировав и экспортные котировки украинских металлургов. Долго ли продлится такая ситуация — непонятно. Экономика КНР замедляется, а поставки руды из Австралии только растут, так что себестоимость металла будет оставаться низкой, а спрос на него как минимум не увеличится, поэтому вряд ли в обозримом будущем мы увидим резкий взлет ценовых уровней на мировых рынках листовой продукции. Возможно, к концу осени отрицательный тренд на них может даже возобновиться. Впрочем, в ближайшие недели расценки на лист в мире с большей долей вероятности останутся относительно стабильными.

Таким образом, при условии стабильности курса гривны на украинском рынке листовой продукции возможно дальнейшее падение расценок, ведь сейчас они остаются завышенными по сравнению с просевшими экспортными котировками. В случае дрейфа курса национальной валюты к уровням в 24–25 грн/$ расценки на лист, скорее всего, стабилизируются. Для их роста пока нет особых предпосылок.

Максим Рассоха

18.08.2015

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