Обзор рынка длинномерного проката - 19.11.2013

Некоторое улучшение ситуации на внешних рынках, скорее всего, способно удержать расценки на длинномерный прокат в Украине от ощутимого снижения. Так что в обозримом будущем резких колебаний расценок на арматуру, вероятно, не предвидится.

С начала осени расценки в сегменте длинномерного проката в Украине не сильно изменились. Впрочем, можно было наблюдать некоторое проседание цен на арматуру в октябре, которое пока не получило продолжения. Наоборот, к середине ноября многие трейдеры вновь немного приподняли ценовые уровни арматурного проката.

Подобное развитие событий в какой-то степени отражает динамику внешних рынков. Например, в важном для украинских металлургов ближневосточном регионе в первой половине осени преобладали негативные для производителей тенденции. Спрос стагнировал на фоне обострения военно-политической обстановки, а активная экспансия дешевого китайского металла выдавливала расценки на арматуру вниз. Впрочем, к концу октября турецкие металлурги попытались повысить свои отпускные расценки, мотивируя подобную политику подорожанием лома. Вначале им это почти не удалось, лишь к середине ноября ближневосточные потребители приняли указанное повышение, прежде всего потому, что, израсходовав запасы в период низкой закупочной активности в сентябре–октябре, сейчас они все-таки нуждаются в новых партиях продукции. Впрочем, вряд ли подобное повышение можно назвать устойчивым. Пока на ближневосточном рынке все так же активно предлагается относительно дешевый китайский металл, а спрос на длинномерный прокат в Саудовской Аравии находится на низком уровне. Поэтому, хотя украинские металлурги и смогли немного повысить свои экспортные котировки вслед за турецкими производителями, на дальнейший рост цен, судя по всему, рассчитывать не стоит, если только на внутреннем рынке КНР не случится чудо и китайские металлурги не уйдут с мировых торговых площадок.

Динамика расценок украинского рынка в сегменте длинномерного проката (цены приведены для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Рис. 1. Динамика расценок украинского рынка в сегменте длинномерного проката (цены приведены для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Сравнительная динамика экспортных расценок украинских производителей, цен рынка Ближнего Востока и внутренних цен на арматуру

Рис. 2. Сравнительная динамика экспортных расценок украинских производителей, цен рынка Ближнего Востока и внутренних цен на арматуру

Впрочем, текущее повышение экспортных котировок сыграло важную роль для динамики расценок на внутреннем рынке, где, как уже говорилось, наблюдалось небольшое снижение ценовых уровней. В результате разрыв между внешними и внутренними ценами сократился и отошел от критической черты в 150 $/т, при превышении которой отечественные производители обычно вынуждены снижать свои отпускные расценки. Сейчас указанный разрыв составляет порядка 130 $/т. Хотя резерв для снижения внутренних цен еще остается, металлурги, скорее всего, не захотят уменьшать расценки для украинских потребителей, если пока можно этого не делать.

Таким образом, после небольшого снижения внутренних цен на фоне пусть слабого, но роста внешних ценовых уровней, предпосылки для дальнейшего проседания расценок в сегменте длинномерного проката во многом нивелированы.

Максим Рассоха

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