Обзор рынка длинномерного проката — 18.11.2014

Главным фактором, влияющим на ценовую динамику длинномерного проката в Украине, остается курс гривны. Поэтому, хотя тенденции мировых рынков как минимум не способствуют росту цен, их новое повышение на украинском рынке металлопроката вполне вероятно.

Расценки на украинском рынке длинномерной продукции стабилизировались после взрывного роста в начале осени, вызванного ослаблением гривны. Новая волна девальвации национальной валюты, если только она не будет погашена в ближайшие дни, скорее всего, приведет к очередному росту внутренних цен на металлопрокат. В то же время ситуация на мировых рынках металла в последнее время не радует металлургов, хотя в конце октября и там установилось некое подобие равновесия.

Динамика расценок украинского рынка в сегменте длинномерного проката (цены приведены для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Рис. 1. Динамика расценок украинского рынка в сегменте длинномерного проката (цены приведены для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Сравнительная динамика экспортных расценок украинских производителей, цен рынка Ближнего Востока и внутренних цен на арматуру

Рис. 2. Сравнительная динамика экспортных расценок украинских производителей, цен рынка Ближнего Востока и внутренних цен на арматуру

В преддверии пекинского саммита лидеров тихоокеанского региона на севере КНР в принудительном порядке снизили активность металлургические предприятия, чтобы не портить экологию. Эта мера, безусловно, временная, но на фоне несколько выросшего внутреннего спроса в Поднебесной она смогла переломить отрицательный тренд на внутреннем рынке КНР. Так что расценки на арматуру в Китае даже немного увеличились. Следовательно, и экспортные котировки на китайский длинномерный прокат перестали падать, а в некоторых случаях даже немного подросли. Подобные процессы остановили безудержную экспансию китайских металлургов на мировые рынки и удержали экспортные котировки украинских производителей от резкого обвала, хотя в целом металлурги вынуждены идти на уступки на фоне общемирового снижения цен на руду, лом, заготовки и конечный металлопрокат.

Впрочем, сейчас китайское правительство рассматривает комплекс мер, способных ограничить экспорт металлопроката из Поднебесной уже на постоянной основе. Собственно говоря, и сейчас вывоз простого металла за пределы КНР официально не приветствуется, однако производители обходят подобные ограничения, добавляя в сталь небольшие количества бора. Себестоимость металла это практически не меняет, зато позволяет гордо заявить, что экспортируется не обычный металл, а легированный. До сих пор китайские власти сквозь пальцы смотрели на эти уловки. Но теперь вновь активизировалась кампания по ужесточению экспортных условий. Если правительству КНР действительно удастся обуздать китайских металлургов, это позволит украинским производителям удержать экспортные котировки от спада. В противном случае нельзя исключить их проседания в среднесрочной перспективе.

Поэтому со стороны внешних рынков пока нет предпосылок для роста внутренних цен. Однако ослабление гривны может привести к их повышению уже в ближайшем будущем.

Максим Рассоха

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