Обзор рынка катанки - 21.10.2014

Ухудшение ситуации на мировых рынках длинномерного проката вынуждает украинских металлургов понемногу снижать экспортные котировки на катанку. Значит, предпосылок для дальнейшего роста цен на внутреннем рынке пока нет.

Расценки на катанку, как и на арматуру, увеличившись в начале сентября, впоследствии стабилизировались. Рост цен был реакцией на новый этап девальвации гривны. Сейчас, несмотря на слабость национальной валюты, долларовый эквивалент внутренних цен все же превышает экспортные котировки на 30–40 $/т. При этом последние обозначили явную тенденцию к проседанию.

Динамика цен внутреннего рынка на арматуру и катанку (для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Рис. 1. Динамика цен внутреннего рынка на арматуру и катанку (для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Динамика экспортных цен украинских производителей на арматуру, катанку и квадратную заготовку (полуфабрикат)

Рис. 2. Динамика экспортных цен украинских производителей на арматуру, катанку и квадратную заготовку (полуфабрикат)

Сравнительная динамика цен внутреннего рынка (очищенных от НДС) и экспортных расценок на катанку

Рис. 3. Сравнительная динамика цен внутреннего рынка (очищенных от НДС) и экспортных расценок на катанку

Особенно четко это видно на примере расценок на квадратную заготовку (полуфабриката для длинномерного проката). Украинские металлурги были вынуждены снизить экспортные котировки по данной продукции на 30 $/т под давлением дешевого китайского импорта. Хотя потребители на Ближнем Востоке пока сдержанно относятся к полуфабрикатам из КНР, опасаясь их низкого качества и длительной доставки, наличие дешевой китайской заготовки используется в качестве рычага давления на украинских производителей. При этом падение цен на полуфабрикаты в регионе уменьшит себестоимость арматуры и катанки у местных прокатных заводов. Подтачивает цены на катанку и дешевеющий лом. Кроме того, падение цен на нефть урезает доходы ближневосточного региона, а значит, и спрос на строительную металлопродукцию будет расти там не так быстро, как предполагалось ранее. Все это в скором времени вынудит украинских металлургов опустить цены и на готовую продукцию.

Впрочем, сейчас металлоторговцы зачастую не могут найти покупателей на свою арматуру и катанку вследствие засилья дешевого длинномерного проката из Китая. Вряд ли в обозримом будущем ситуация существенно улучшится, скорее наоборот. Продолжающееся падение котировок руды работает на уменьшение себестоимости металла в КНР, а углубляющийся кризис в строительной отрасли Поднебесной режет китайский рынок длинномерного проката по живому. Значит, у местных металлургов нет другого выхода, кроме наводнения внешних рынков все более дешевеющим прокатом (арматурой и катанкой).

Скорее всего, такая ситуация продлится долго. Поэтому украинские производители катанки рано или поздно, а скорее все же рано, вынуждены будут снизить свои экспортные котировки. Значит, если только на валютном рынке не состоится новая крупная девальвация гривны, расценки на катанку в Украине не получат стимулов для роста. Следовательно, пока вероятно сохранение их относительной стабильности.

Максим Рассоха

21.10.2014

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