Обзор рынка катанки - 29.10.2013

Сложная ситуация на мировых рынках металла, скорее всего, не позволит существенно увеличить экспортные котировки украинским производителям длинномерного проката. Значит, не стоит ожидать и роста цен на отечественном рынке катанки. Напротив, нельзя исключить возможность некоторого их проседания, если положение на внешних рынках будет оставаться напряженным.

В целом, расценки на украинском рынке катанки существенно не изменялись на протяжении вот уже шести месяцев, мало реагируя на волатильность внешних рынков, направление движения которых за это время успело не раз измениться. При этом общая тенденция вела скорее к снижению расценок на мировых торговых площадках, чем к их росту. Подобное поведение внешних рынков отразилось на внутренних расценках арматуры — вечного партнера катанки в сегменте длинномерного проката. Впрочем, ценовые уровни арматурного проката и так были достаточно высоки, а значит, им было куда падать, реагируя на общемировые тенденции.

Динамика цен внутреннего рынка на арматуру и катанку (для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Рис. 1. Динамика цен внутреннего рынка на арматуру и катанку (для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Динамика экспортных цен украинских производителей на арматуру, катанку и квадратную заготовку (полуфабрикат)

Рис. 2. Динамика экспортных цен украинских производителей на арматуру, катанку и квадратную заготовку (полуфабрикат)

Сравнительная динамика цен внутреннего рынка (очищенных от НДС) и экспортных расценок на катанку

Рис. 3.Сравнительная динамика цен внутреннего рынка (очищенных от НДС) и экспортных расценок на катанку

В последнее время экспортные котировки украинских металлургов на арматуру и катанку колеблются в пределах 550–600 $/т (FOB). При этом большую часть времени они тяготеют именно к нижней границе данного интервала. Отметим, впрочем, что расценки на катанку на мировых торговых площадках традиционно несколько выше, нежели ценовые уровни арматуры (примерно на 5–10 $/т). Тем не менее изменяются они обычно вполне синхронно. В последний раз мировые цены на длинномерный прокат подошли к верхнему пределу в конце нынешнего лета. Трейдеры, предполагая увеличение реального спроса с началом осеннего сезона, пополняли запасы, что привело к опережающему росту цен (как выяснилось очень скоро, не вполне обоснованному). Во-первых, потребление металлопроката на важном для украинских производителей рынке Ближнего Востока так и не выросло. Наоборот, испуганные возможностью полномасштабной войны в регионе, покупатели предпочли жить на старых запасах, да и вообще активность в строительной отрасли оставляла желать лучшего. Значит, и спрос на длинномерную продукцию отнюдь не блистал.

Во-вторых, как это уже не раз бывало, злую шутку сами с собой (да и со всем миром) сыграли китайские металлурги, которые были уверенны в увеличении потребления металлопроката с началом осени и в связи с этим нарастили сверх всякой меры выпуск металла. В результате, хотя спрос (в том числе и на длинномерный прокат) действительно вырос, предложение увеличилось в еще большей степени. Кризис перепроизводства вынуждает китайских производителей снижать расценки вот уже два месяца подряд. Сейчас продукция металлургов КНР на ближневосточном рынке котируется на уровне в 550–560 $/т (CFR), то есть ниже, чем соответствующая продукция украинских производителей, которые пока не только не приостановили уменьшение своих экспортных котировок, но, по их словам, приподняли цены примерно на 5 $/т. Скорее всего, они надеялись на то, что китайские металлурги ослабят давление на внешние рынки во второй половине октября, ведь, так или иначе, сейчас в КНР самый разгар строительного сезона. Тем не менее пока производители длинномерной продукции из Поднебесной не только с легкостью удовлетворяют внутренний спрос, но и продолжают экспансию на внешние рынки. Поэтому нынешние экспортные котировки украинской арматуры и катанки остаются во многом виртуальными. Потребители не слишком торопятся с закупками продукции. Вполне возможно, украинским металлургам придется в конце концов опять немного снизить экспортные котировки. К этому их обязывает присутствие на ближневосточном рынке дешевого китайского проката, который, хоть и не слишком выгоден для потребителей в плане временных затрат, требуемых на его транспортировку, тем не менее ограничивает любые попытки других металлургов приподнять свои расценки.

На данный момент вне рынка находятся производители длинномерной продукции из ЕС. Высокий курс евро не позволяет им выходить на мировые торговые площадки с конкурентоспособными предложениями. Как показывают события последних месяцев, курс может измениться весьма быстро. Тогда, обостряя конкуренцию до предела, на ближневосточном рынке длинномерного проката появится еще один мощный игрок. Внутренние процессы в ЕС показывают, что полностью фактор перепроизводства металла преодолеть не удалось. Сейчас металлопродукция из депрессивных южных стран идет на север, сбивая котировки на арматуру и катанку в Германии. В результате расценки в ЕС понемногу выравниваются по нижнему краю ценового диапазона, что является сигналом о недостаточности внутреннего спроса и создает гипотетическую угрозу для ближневосточного рынка длинномерного проката в случае резкого ослабления курса евро.

В такой ситуации металлотрейдеры не спешат пополнять свои склады, так что они вряд ли смогут оказать существенную поддержку ценовым уровням на Ближнем Востоке. Котировки, судя по всему, еще некоторое время будут прижаты к нынешнему нижнему пределу, а значит, и предпосылок для ощутимого роста экспортных котировок украинских производителей арматуры и катанки пока нет. Сейчас разрыв между ними и долларовым эквивалентом внутренних цен на катанку составляет порядка 80 $/т. Аналогичный показатель для арматуры зачастую достигает и 150 $/т, только лишь после этого украинские металлурги начинают снижать отпускные расценки для отечественных потребителей. Тем не менее в сегменте катанки внутренние цены зачастую получали импульс для снижения и при достижении указанным разрывом отметки в 80–100 $/т.

Так что, если ситуация на мировых рынках длинномерного проката и впрямь будет развиваться не самым лучшим образом, а экспортные котировки несколько снизятся или, по крайней мере, останутся прижатыми к нынешним уровням достаточно долгое время, расценки на катанку в Украине также могут немного уменьшиться. Хотя на данный момент все же более вероятно сохранение относительной стабильности цен в данном сегменте отечественного рынка металла.

Таким образом, расценки на катанку в Украине, скорее всего, останутся на прежних уровнях, но могут и несколько просесть. А вот предпосылок для их роста на данный момент точно нет.

Максим Рассоха

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Music sheets and scores serve as the guide for musicians. Understanding Music Sheets and Scores Music sheets and scores hold the transcribed representation of musical works. Elements of Music Sheets and Scores 1. **Staff:** The set of five lines and four spaces that represent different musical pitches. 2. **Signs:** Symbols used to denote the pitch range of the notes. 3. **Tones:** The symbols used to indicate the pitch and duration of sounds in music. 4. **Breaks:** Notations that represent periods of silence. 5. **Time Signature:** Denotes the rhythmic structure of the composition. 6. **Key Signature:** Specifies the scale in which the piece is written. 7. **Intensity:** Indications of the volume of the music. 8. **Expression:** Symbols showing the manner of performance of notes. 9. **Pace:** The rate of the music’s execution. 10. **Ornaments:** Symbols showing extra notes for decorative purposes. 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Tips for Beginners 1. **Start Simple:** Begin with simple pieces and gradually move to more complex ones. 2. **Frequent Practice:** Consistent practice helps reinforce learning. 3. **Use Resources:** Use tools and aids such as apps, books, and online tutorials. 4. **Join a Community:** Seek support from others who are also learning to read music. 5. **Be Patient:** Stay persistent and don't get discouraged by challenges. Advanced Techniques 1. **Instant Interpretation:** The ability to read and play a piece of music on the spot without prior preparation. 2. **Changing Keys:** Modulating music to a different key. 3. **Harmonization:** The practice of adding harmonies to a melody. 4. **Ad-Libbing:** Spontaneous composition of music on the spot. 5. **Personal Expression:** Bringing personal interpretation to the performance of music. Famous Composers and Their Scores 1. **Beethoven:** Known for his complex and emotionally powerful compositions. 2. **Mozart:** Known for his intricate and beautifully structured compositions. 3. **J. S. Bach:** Known for his masterful use of counterpoint and harmony. 4. **Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky:** Known for his ability to convey deep emotion through music. 5. **Debussy:** Known for his unique and expressive musical style. Digital vs. Traditional Music Scores **Pros of Digital Sheets:** - Convenience: Easily accessible on various devices. - Modification: Easily editable and modifiable. - Space: Easy to store and organize. **Benefits of Paper Music:** - Hands-On: Provides a tangible, hands-on experience. - Longevity: Resilient and less prone to digital failures. - Visual Beauty: Aesthetic and artistic value. The Role of Technology in Music Scores Technology has changed the way we engage with music scores. **Digital Sheet Music Apps:** Apps like MuseScore, Noteflight, and Sibelius offer powerful tools for creating, editing, and sharing music scores. **Online Libraries:** Online libraries provide access to a wide range of music scores. **Interactive Learning Tools:** Tools like SmartMusic and Yousician offer interactive learning experiences for musicians of all levels. Conclusion Music sheets and scores are integral to the practice of music. Whether you are new or an expert, comprehending how to read and interpret music sheets and scores is essential. Embrace the process of understanding music sheets and scores, and discover the potential that await. Music sheets have a long history that stretches over centuries. Early Beginnings The initial forms of music notation date back to ancient civilizations. Ancient Mesopotamians developed basic music notation techniques to preserve their rituals. The Greek Contribution Greek society made notable advancements to music notation. Medieval Innovations The medieval period witnessed considerable progress in music notation. The Renaissance Era The Renaissance brought a resurgence of art, including music notation. Baroque and Classical Periods During the Baroque and Classical periods, music notation advanced further, growing more detailed. The Romantic Era The Romantic era ushered in innovative emotional styles in music notation. The Modern Age In the contemporary period, music notation experienced significant changes, incorporating technology. The Digital Revolution The arrival of electronic notation transformed the landscape of music notation. Key Milestones in Music Notation History 1. **Early Marks:** Ancient Greek symbols that represented musical concepts. 2. **Staff Lines:** Invention of the staff and solmization system by Guido d'Arezzo in the 11th century. 3. **The Renaissance:** Evolution of musical scores in the Classical era. 4. **Romantic Period:** Increased complexity and detail in Romantic music notation. 5. **Modern Notation:** Revolutionary changes in music notation practices in the modern age. The Role of Music Sheets in Education Music sheets act as a crucial role in music education. Notable Composers and Their Contributions 1. **Johann Sebastian Bach:** Renowned for his elaborate and accurate notation techniques. 2. **Beethoven:** Innovated in the use of dynamic and expressive notations. 3. **Mozart:** Mastered the Classical style of clear and elegant notation. 4. **Frédéric Chopin:** Innovated in the expressive notation for piano compositions. 5. **Stravinsky:** Pioneered 20th-century notational innovations. Evolution of Music Sheets in the Digital Age The digital age has significantly transformed the approach we use music sheets. Future of Music Sheets The next era of music sheets holds exciting innovations. With the progression of technology, the techniques artists use to compose and publish music sheets will in parallel advance. Conclusion The history of music sheets is intricate, mirroring the advancement of music itself. From ancient symbols to digital scores, music sheets have been a vital means for preserving and sharing compositions. As we move forward, the history of music sheets will persist, evolving with future advancements. } Music sheets hold a deep history that spans over ages. Early Beginnings The first versions of music notation trace back to early societies. Ancient Mesopotamians designed simple music notation techniques to document their rituals. The Greek Contribution Greek society made important contributions to music notation. Medieval Innovations The Dark Ages saw considerable developments in music notation. The Renaissance Era The Renaissance brought a resurgence of culture, including music notation. Baroque and Classical Periods During the Baroque and Classical periods, music notation developed further, becoming increasingly sophisticated. The Romantic Era The Romantic era ushered in novel expressive styles in music notation. The Modern Age In the modern era, music notation saw significant changes, integrating electronic systems. The Digital Revolution The arrival of electronic notation revolutionized the landscape of music notation. Key Milestones in Music Notation History 1. **Primitive Symbols:** Ancient Greek symbols that represented musical concepts. 2. **Guido d'Arezzo:** Invention of the staff and solmization system by Guido d'Arezzo in the 11th century. 3. **Baroque Notation:** Advancements in notational precision during the Renaissance. 4. **19th Century:** 19th-century innovations in music notation techniques. 5. **Contemporary Techniques:** Introduction of graphic scores and experimental notation in the 20th century. The Role of Music Sheets in Education Music sheets serve a vital part in music education. Notable Composers and Their Contributions 1. **J.S. Bach:** Famed for his intricate and precise notation. 2. **L. Beethoven:** Pioneered expressive notations and dynamic markings. 3. **Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart:** Mastered the Classical style of clear and elegant notation. 4. **F. Chopin:** Known for his detailed and expressive piano music notations. 5. **I. Stravinsky:** Revolutionized 20th-century notation with his complex scores. Evolution of Music Sheets in the Digital Age The modern era has dramatically altered the way we use music sheets. Future of Music Sheets The coming age of music sheets foresees intriguing advancements. As technology evolves, the tools artists use to produce and publish music sheets will in parallel advance. Conclusion The story of music sheets holds depth, showcasing the advancement of music itself. From early marks to electronic sheets, music sheets have functioned as a vital medium for preserving and sharing melodies. As we look ahead, the history of music sheets will continue, evolving with each new era.} Learning to read music sheets is crucial for all beginning musician. | Mastering how to read music sheets is essential for every novice musician. | Mastering the art of reading music sheets is vital for every aspiring musicians.} What Are Music Sheets? Music sheets serve as written down representations of musical notes, indicating the note as well as pace of a music composition. Getting Started with Music Sheets Understanding reading music sheets starts with becoming familiar with the basic components of music notation. Understanding Musical Notation Music notation consists of a few key components, including clefs, notes, rhythms, and staff. This is is the foundation of musical notations. In that music notation, this staff includes five distinct flat lines and four spaces. 2. **Clefs Clefs indicate the actual note on the staff is meant to the five lines and spaces. | Clefs denote what musical note is going for each line and the five different spaces. | This clefs denote to these lines as well as these different spaces.} {There {are actually|actually are|is} {two|two separate|two distinct} {primary|different|distinct} {clefs|clef|music notes} {used in|used in various|used in the} {music|musical} {notation|notes|notations}. | There {are actually|actually are|is} {two|two separate|two distinct} {primary|different|distinct} {clefs|musical notes|clef} {used in|used in various|used in the} {notations|music|musical} {of|music} {these notes|these notes}.

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